This article was last updated: 25/04/2024
We will be keeping this live news page regularly updated on the developing situation in the Red Sea.
Disruption to the flow of trade in the Red Sea began following several attacks on commercial vessels from Houthi rebels off the coast of Yemen. In response, the world’s second-largest container shipping line, A.P. Moller-Maersk announced they would be suspending transits of their ships through the Red Sea on Friday 15th December 2023. A move which was swiftly replicated by almost all of the other major container shipping lines. See our timeline of events below. Alternatively, read our section on the impacts for shippers.
Almost all east-west bound container traffic is currently diverting around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. A route which adds about 3000 nautical miles and roughly 10 days onto a journey between China and North Europe. It can add around 15 days onto some Mediterranean routes. A diversion which is having a big impact on freight rates for shippers and consequently expected to drive inflation for consumers.
Estimates suggest diversions round the Cape is the equivalent of taking roughly 1.5-2 million teu out of the market, tied up in longer transit times. The latest analysis from Clarksons shows container vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden is 90% down on December 2023 levels.
New data from the British Chamber of Commerce has revealed 37% of businesses they surveyed have been impacted by the crisis, with increased costs and delays cited as the biggest consequence. That figure rises to over 55% when only exporters are included. Firms most likely to be feeling the impacts include retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers.
"Our research suggests that the longer the current situation persists, the more likely it is that the cost pressures will start to build."
William Bain, Head of Trade Policy, British Chambers of Commerce
The situation has escalated to several targeted strikes against Houthi rebel sites in Yemen, most recently from the US on Tuesday 12th March, when the US Central Command claimed to have destroyed an unmanned underwater vessel and 18 anti-ship missiles. The strikes are being claimed as self defence of commercial trade and the UK/US warships in the region.
"The threats to shipping must cease, illegally detained vessels and crews must be released, and we remain prepared to back our words with actions."
Rishi Sunak, UK Prime Minister
Sadly on Wednesday 6th March, in a Houthi rebel attack against the True Confidence vessel, three crew members were killed. These were the first seafarer deaths in the group's attacks on commercial shipping.
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Members of the UN Security Council have called on the Houthi rebels to stop their attacks and release the Galaxy Leader cargo vessel, which has remained seized, along with its crew, since November 19th.
“These attacks pose grave implications for maritime security, international shipping and commerce, and they undermine the fragile humanitarian situation in Yemen.”
Chris Lu, U.S. representative to the United Nations
It's also been reported in the Financial Times that the US has held secret talks with Iran in an attempt to convince Tehran to use its influence over Yemen’s Houthi movement to end attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Currently, the situation is showing no sign of de-escalation and international trade remains heavily affected by the increased costs and delays of containerised shipping avoiding the Red Sea.
Learn about the long term implications of the Red Sea disruption...
Timeline of events
Tuesday 14th November 2023
Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the Houthi rebel leader, announced the group was on the lookout for Israeli vessels in the commercially vital waters of the Red Sea, even those that did not have Israeli flags.
Sunday 19th November 2023
Houthi rebels seize the Galaxy Leader cargo ship, which they call Israeli-owned. A spokesperson for the group said that attacks from Houthi forces would continue "to carry out military operations against the Israeli enemy until the aggression against Gaza stops".
Footage from the incident released by the Houthi group shows armed, masked men jumping onto the ship from a helicopter, whilst the vessel is still moving. Then holding crew members at gunpoint.
The Galaxy Leader cargo ship, along with her crew, remains seized at Hodeidah port in Yemen.
Sunday 3rd December 2023
OOCL box ship Number 9 is hit by a rocket as it sails 40km from the Yemen coast. It's reported Houthi rebels ordered the ship to dock at the port of Hodeidah, however the captain explains that damage to the ship has meant she is unable to change course.
In the aftermath of the attack, Tradewinds raises questions around whether the Houthi rebels are using outdated data in their targeting of ships. Number 9 was chartered by Israeli line Zim from October 2020 to December 2020, but the ship was subsequently chartered by Hong Kong-based Gold Star Line.
Thursday 14th December 2023
The 10,100 teu Hong Kong-flagged Maersk Gibraltar survives a near miss, after being targeted by a missile which was launched from a Houthi rebel occupied area of Yemen. It's the latest of several attacks on commercial vessels in the region, which appear to be getting more indiscriminate.
In response, Maersk release a statement reading, “The recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Bad-al-Mandab Strait are extremely concerning. The current situation puts seafarers’ lives at risk and is unsustainable for global trade."
Friday 15th December 2023
A US defence official tells media of repeated strikes on the Hapag-Lloyd operated Al Jasrah, which caused a fire and one container going overboard, however no crew are harmed.
Hours later, A.P. Moller Maersk, the second-biggest container shipping line announced they would be suspending transits of their ships through the Red Sea, in the wake of attacks from Houthi rebels.
Another statement from Maersk read, "Following the near-miss incident involving Maersk Gibraltar yesterday and yet another attack on a container vessel today, we have instructed all Maersk vessels in the area bound to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait to pause their journey until further notice."
Monday 18th December 2023
The US launches Operation Prosperity Guardian, an international military effort of several nations including the UK, France and Germany, to secure the safety of ships in the region.
Tuesday 19th December 2023
By Tuesday 19th December, most major shipping lines, including MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen, COSCO, CMA CGM, HMM, and OOCL have joined Maersk in suspending transits of the Red Sea in the wake of attacks on vessels. From this moment, the overwhelming majority of container tonnage has been bypassing the Bab al-Mandab strait.
It's a move which triggers a aggressive increase in freight rates from the Fast East to Europe, as a consequence of the 3000 nautical mile diversion and extra 10-12 days transit time. It also triggers wider supply chain disruption, delays, equipment shortages and schedules knocked out of sync.
Sunday 24th December 2023
Maersk, the first shipping line to suspend transits through the Red Sea, decide to reinstate them in response to the international military effort.
Sunday 31st December 2023
After an attack on their Hangzhou vessel, Maersk reimplement their suspension until further notice. Although, this attack was successfully thwarted by the US Navy and the ship’s own security team.
Tuesday 9th January 2024
UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps announced that HMS Diamond, along with US warships, had repelled the largest Houthi rebel drone attack to date, which targeted both commercial and military vessels. After which, the UK and US hinted at taking military action against the group. At this point there had now been more than 25 attacks on vessels in the region.
"The UK, alongside allies, have previously made clear that these illegal attacks are completely unacceptable... we will take the action necessary to protect innocent lives and the global economy."
Grant Shapps, UK Defence Secretary
Friday 12th January 2024
Overnight, the US and UK, with support from the Netherlands, Australia, Canada and Bahrain, hit Houthi rebel sites in Yemen with air strikes. It's claimed the attacks are to protect global trade and in self defence after attacks on military ships earlier in the week. In response, the Houthis' deputy foreign minister warned US and UK would "pay a heavy price" for this "blatant aggression".
"[The action] was a limited, proportionate, necessary response in self-defence of our warships in the region, who themselves are there to defend commercial shipping and to protect the freedom of navigation through the Bab al-Mandab straight and southern Red Sea, which is so vital to global trade."
"20% of world trade flows through the Bab al-Mandab... we cannot allow them to seek to choke off global trade as a ransom to achieve whatever their political and diplomatic aims are."
James Heappey, UK Armed Forces Minister, speaking on BBC Breakfast
Monday 15th January 2024
A US-owned cargo ship, the Gibraltar Eagle is hit by a missile in the Red Sea, near Yemen's southern port city of Aden. According to Ambrey, a British maritime security firm, the attack "targeted US interests in response to US military strikes on Houthi military positions in Yemen".
Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made a statement in parliament, outlining the reason for carrying out air strikes against Houthi rebel military sites the previous week.
"Since the 19th November the Houthi's have launched over 25 attacks on commercial shipping and on the 9th January, they launched a direct attack on UK and American warships... it was the biggest attack on the Royal Navy for decades, and so we acted. We did so in self defence."
Rishi Sunak, UK Prime Minister
Monday 22nd January 2024
The US and UK carry out further strikes against Houthi rebel targets in defence of warships and international trade. It's the 8th strike from the US military, with the UK involved in two. UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron says the UK and US want to "send the clearest possible message" that their words will be supported by action. A Houthi military spokesperson said these latest attacks "will not go unanswered".
"[On Monday 22nd January] Four RAF typhoons took part in military action, together with the Americans, to further degrade the Houthi capacity to carry out these attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. What the Houthis are doing is unacceptable, its illegal and threatening the freedom of navigation."
Lord Cameron, UK Foreign Secretary
Wednesday 24th January
A missile attack on the US-flagged containerships Maersk Detroit and Maersk Chesapeake forces the two vessels to abandon their naval convoy and flee the Red Sea. The two vessels were under escort by US naval vessel USS Gravely and were carrying military supplies when they were attacked by a barrage of Houthi missiles.
Thursday 1st February
The Houthi movement launched a failed missile strike at a US merchant ship called Koi, which was being chartered by major carrier CMA CGM in the Red Sea. Reports suggest it's the 28th attack on a merchant ships in the region.
Meanwhile, the US has launched new airstrikes against the rebel group, hitting drones which were being set up to launch. The Houthis now publicly regard any Israeli, US and British ships as legitimate targets.
Sunday 4th February
The US and UK launch their third round of joint strikes against the Houthi rebels, in an attempt to degrade their ability to attack commercial vessels in the Red Sea. A day later, the US launches further strikes.
Last night, @RoyalAirForce Typhoons successfully took out specific Houthi military targets in Yemen, further degrading the Houthis’ capabilities.
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) February 4, 2024
Recent attacks on UK and international vessels are unacceptable. It’s our duty to protect innocent lives and preserve freedom. pic.twitter.com/AV1a22G8QM
Monday 5th February
Following the failed missile attack on their chartered ship Koi, CMA CGM become the last major carrier to announce suspension of transits through the Red Sea. Previously CMA CGM had been using the Red Sea where naval support from French warships was available.
Monday 19th February
Attacks continue against commercial vessels in the Red Sea area. Most recently, a Belize-flagged, British-registered and Lebanese-operated general cargo ship, is reportedly at risk of sinking after an attack. The Rubymar was hit in the Gulf of Aden on Sunday, when the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that the crew had abandoned a ship off the coast of Yemen after an explosion.
Sunday 25th February
The US and UK launch a fresh wave of joint airstrikes against the Houthi-rebel movement, again attempting to reduce their capacity to target commercial ships in the Red Sea. The statement confirming the strikes once again mentioned "necessary and proportionate" action. 18 targets in 8 locations were hit.
Wednesday 28th February
CMA CGM announce they will reintroduce Red Sea transits on a case-by-case basis, despite continued Houthi rebel attacks. The world’s third largest container line said the situation was being “closely assessed” for each vessel prior to transit and therefore it was not possible to communicate routing choices in advance.
CMA were the last to cease use of the Red Sea, having only announced suspension on February 5th. Until that point they had been using the water way when French naval support was available.
Sunday 3rd March
The Rubymar bulk carrier, which was struck by the Houthi rebels on Sunday 18th February finally sank two weeks after being hit. The ship is the first vessel to be sunk by the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea region.
The bulk carrier was carrying 21,000 metric tons of fertiliser, which is now believed to be a risk to around 300 species of coral and 2,100 types of fish, some of which are unique to these waters.
Wednesday 6th March
Three crew members of the Barbados-flagged True Confidence vessel are killed after a Houthi missile strike on the cargo ship. True Confidence was abandoned and had been drifting after the strikes.
The Houthis claimed in their statement that the vessel was American, but the spokesman said the vessel had "no current connection with any US entity".
"We condemn the Houthis' reckless and indiscriminate attacks on global shipping and demand they stop. We will continue to stand up for freedom of navigation and back our words with actions."Lord Cameron, UK Foreign Secretary
Houthis Kill Innocent Civilians with Missile Attack
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 6, 2024
At approximately 11:30 a.m. (Sanaa time) Mar. 6, an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) was launched from Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled areas of Yemen toward M/V True Confidence, a Barbados-flagged, Liberian-owned… pic.twitter.com/W1H0GP4Y6i
Sunday 24th March
The Houthi rebels fire five missiles at Huang Pu, a Panamanian-flagged, Chinese-owned, Chinese-operated crude oil tanker. No casualties have been reported, but the vessel did report some minor damage from the fifth and final missile attack, and a fire broke out on board. That was reportedly extinguished by the crew within 30 minutes.
Saturday 13th April
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard seize the Israeli-linked MSC Aries vessel in the Persian Gulf, ahead of Iran's wider attack on Tel Aviv.
The UK and US are among many nations calling for her immediate release along with the 25 crew members.
The consequences of the Red Sea disruption for shippers
Rates remain substantially higher than late in 2023, although have come down from their peaks in January across many trade lanes. About 30% of global container traffic transits the Red Sea/Suez Canal waterway in normal circumstances. Avoiding it on east-west trades adds significant cost for shippers and days onto ETAs.
Reports from market analyst Xeneta suggest that in January, short term rates were as much as 350% higher than Q4 2023 on badly impacted trade lanes.
This extra time for journeys initially knocked shipping schedules out of sync. Vessels weren't where they need to be at the right time, which threatened to cause further capacity crunches and bottlenecks at ports. However, so far European ports have been coping well with unscheduled vessel arrivals. Yard utilisation levels were reportedly up to 85-90% at Northern European ports in February, from 50-55% late last year.
Rate increases on other lanes, not directly impacted by the diversion are being felt, as additional capacity is added to the Asia - Europe lane and there are shortages of other equipment.
Shippers should prepare for fluctuations in rates and review their budgets for 2024, as a quick resolution to the Red Sea crisis feels unlikely. In a recent Flexport webinar update, it was advised shippers should expect all of H1 2024 to be affected by the issue to a certain degree. Businesses need to factor in changes and delays to proforma shipping schedules.
Estimates are that ships taking the route around the Cape of Good Hope, instead of the Red Sea effectively takes between 1.5-2 million teu out of the market, tied up in longer transit times.
However, the wider context here is the shipping lines spent the second half of 2023 struggling to find employment for all their vessels. The market is generally regarded as oversupplied. There was not enough demand for shipping to meet how much space shipping lines had. Rates were bottoming out just 18 weeks ago.
So with nearly 3m teu of new tonnage due to hit the market in 2024, on top of the 2.3m teu delivered in 2023, there’s expected to be plenty of space. As of March, 500,000 of this new tonnage had arrived, with the vast majority of it going straight onto the Asia - European trading routes to accommodate the diversion. But analysts predict the carriers are still roughly 400,000 teu of capacity short of being able to fully plug the gaps in their revised networks.
“Rates initially increased dramatically on the Asia - Europe trade lane, but those increases have tailed off in recent weeks. We've actually seen a bit of a decline which would suggest the peak has passed. However, we're now starting to see increases on other trade lanes, as the carriers funnel additional capacity onto Asia - Europe to compensate for the huge diversion.”
Keri Barton, Sales & Marketing Director, WTA
We're now also starting the see the environmental impact of a long term shift away from the Suez Canal. According to The Loadstar, data from SeaRoutes suggests emissions from a vessel travelling around the Cape could be some 27% higher per teu than going via the Suez Canal.
However, findings from Sea Intelligence suggest a worst-case scenario would see cargo making the voyage on smaller, faster ships. If that happens, CO2 per teu on an Asia-North Europe trade could increase by as much as 435%. Furthermore, according to International Civil Aviation Organisation calculations, shipping the same amount of cargo via a realistic sea-air route – such as via Dubai – gives a 4,872.6% increase over a conventional Suez Canal sea transit.
This comes just as the EU apply their Emissions Trading Scheme to the maritime sector. Click here for our article covering the predicted impact the scheme will have on costs for shippers.
For more information on the long-term implications of Red Sea disruption, read our article below...
Solutions to the Red Sea disruption for shippers
Unfortunately, all international shippers are exposed to disruption when it is on this scale. However, there are some steps businesses can take to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption and longer-term strategic decisions which can protect against future challenges.
The Suez Canal and Red Sea region is prone to this kind of incident and will feature highly on the risk registers of international traders. Most will remember the Ever Given blockage of March 2021, which had huge ramifications.
Explore air freight options
The quickest fix to alleviate inventory pressures and avoid delays is to explore the air freight market. History tells us that increased sea freight rates, delays and strained inventories, pushes more shippers towards air freight.
This could be in the form of a multimodal transportation of sea-air freight. Shippers could utilise sea freight from Asia to a major international hub such as Dubai, then use the air freight market for transit to Europe. Doing so would of course bypass the Red Sea disruption. The UK and other European nations are very well connected with the Middle East through aviation, therefore there is plenty of capacity.
Combining the two methods of transportation is an effective way of avoiding Red Sea disruption, whilst minimising cost.
A key advantage of this option for shippers now, compared with the supply chain crunch of Covid-19, is that passenger traffic is back, meaning cargo space is readily available. In 2023, passenger numbers had recovered to 94.2% of the pre-pandemic levels. In 2024, it’s expected to have fully recovered.
Whilst air freight rates are expected to rise, it will perhaps be less dramatic than the increases seen in sea freight.
Explore rail freight options
Rail freight from China and other Asian nations into Europe is possible and boasts a shorter transit time than sea freight, taking between 25-28 days. However, rail freight faces its own challenges. With war ongoing in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, the costs associated with rail transportation are already elevated.
Discuss both air and rail freight options with our supply chain experts below.
Stay informed
Being across the latest information regarding disruption is a vital step for minimising its impact on your supply lines. Work with a freight forwarder who provides industry insights and market information. Demand more from your logistics providers beyond a simply transactional relationship. They should be well connected and able to provide regular updates on any global disruption which is impactful to your business operations.
Prompt communication, and the swift decision making that comes with it at times like this can save businesses hard cash. Subscribe to our market update below for weekly news updates. Keep this page bookmarked to and check back for updates.
Supply chain visibility
Rolling out a supply chain visibility tool leaves you in a far better position to contingency plan and manage disruptions as they unfold.
This incident renews the importance of using a supply chain visibility tool. Real time tracking, live delay notifications and more succinct communication between stakeholders are all vital parts of keeping supply lines moving at times of crisis.
Our visibility tool is the WTA Platform, providing real time data on costs, location, timings, emissions and much more. Book a demo with our team to explore how it could transform your supply chain management whilst saving you money.
Supplier diversification
A key benefit of diversifying your supply lines is reduced exposure to black swan events such as this one. By sourcing products from a variety of suppliers, in different locations, obviously you are protected from a single supply route or waterway encountering trouble.
Reshoring some of your procurement can have the added benefit of reduced logistical costs in the long term. Eastern Europe and parts of Central and South America could offer a more reliable option for sourcing goods.
However, diversifying suppliers isn't possible for all businesses and can be an extremely complicated process.
Explore our article on supplier diversification vs consolidation here.
The situation at the Bab al-Mandab strait at the foot of the Red Sea is developing all the time. We will continually monitor this page to ensure it remains updated with the latest news to help shippers navigate this crisis.
