From February 2025, the container shipping industry will go through a significant restructuring, as major carriers shift their alliances. These changes will reshape transit times, service reliability, and competition dynamics in the industry.
This article will outline how the sea freight alliances will look from February 2025, explain the reasons for alliances and how the changes will impact shippers for the years to come.
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Major container shipping alliances before February 2025:
Prior to February 2025, the container shipping landscape was dominated by 3 major alliances.
2M Alliance: Maersk and MSC.
Total combined capacity: 10,718,964 teu (as of December 2024)
Ocean Alliance: CMA CGM, COSCO Shipping, OOCL, and Evergreen.
Total combined capacity: 8,910,369 teu (as of December 2024)
THE Alliance: Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, ONE, and Yang Ming.
Total combined capacity: 5,905,415 teu (as of December 2024)
Major container shipping alliances from 1st February 2025:
From February 2025, there will be 4 main factions competing on the major trade lanes.
Gemini Cooperation: A new alliance formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. This powerful combination promises to be a formidable force.
Total combined capacity: 6,745,667 teu (as of December 2024)
Ocean Alliance: Remains unchanged, continuing to operate with its existing members CMA CGM, COSCO Shipping, OOCL, and Evergreen.
Total combined capacity: 8,910,369 teu (as of December 2024)
Premier Alliance: The rebranded THE Alliance, excluding Hapag-Lloyd, but still including HMM, ONE, and Yang Ming.
Total combined capacity: 3,574,472 teu (as of December 2024)
MSC: Operating independently, MSC will leverage its existing network and fleet to compete aggressively.
Total capacity: 6,304,240 (as of December 2024)
*all capacity figures taken from Alphaliner’s December 2024 Monthly Monitor.
How the major shipping alliance changes may impact shippers, taking from the Freight Club Podcast. Full episode available here.
Why are the major container carriers in alliances?
Shipping lines form alliances primarily to improve service coverage. Almost every shipping line, except for MSC, lacks the necessary capacity to provide weekly or bi-weekly services on all the major routes. Pulling this off requires hundreds of ships.
By pooling resources, such as vessels, terminals, and port calls, carriers can reduce operational costs, offer weekly or bi-weekly services on key routes, and deliver comprehensive global coverage to customers.
In theory, these collaborations exist to serve both shippers and carriers. Allowing them to compete more effectively in the highly competitive global shipping market, while also providing shippers with more regular and efficient transportation options.
“There is scepticism from shippers whether the alliances really benefit them. Particularly after the rate surges of Covid-19 and the Red Sea diversion. The alliances did nothing to protect shippers then, and arguably meant there was less genuine competition in the market.”
Liam Launders, Head of Sales, WTA
Impacts of the shipping alliance changes on businesses
1. Increased choice for shippers
We are moving from 3 major container alliances, to effectively 4, with MSC now a standalone operator. This presents the potential for increased competition and service availability for shippers, as now 4 factions look to offer services on major routes.
Where there is increased competition, there is of course the potential for lower freight rates for shippers to enjoy.
2. Varied strategic priorities for shippers to choose.
A significant development of the alliance changes is that it’s coming with a focus on different strategic priorities. This means you can favour an alliance depending on your strategic priorities.
For example, MSC are favouring a network which involves ultra-large container vessels calling at the maximum number of major ports. Meanwhile, the Gemini Cooperation have moved in the other direction. Offering very few direct port calls from major vessels, instead serving most ports with feeder ships. An approach in which they are promising 90% schedule reliability. Much higher than there ~60% it has been globally since Covid-19.
There’s also significant strategic priority discrepancies regarding the environment. Shipping lines are favouring different fuelling options for decarbonising their fleets. Some, like MSC are looking more at LNG-powered fleets, whilst Evergreen and Maersk have a heavier emphasis on methanol.
Meanwhile, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd in the Gemini Cooperation are boasting more ambitious timelines than their competiors for achieving net zero. With Maersk aiming for 2040 and Hapag-Lloyd 2045.
So in the years ahead, decisions can be made by shippers to prioritise certain carriers based on their own supply chain objectives and KPIs.
3. Short term potential for disruptions
The initial period following the alliance reshuffle may see some level of disruption as carriers adjust their operations and bed in the new networks. Shippers should anticipate potential delays, some equipment shortages, and service adjustments during this transition phase.
4. Port accessibility changes
As networks shift, the accessibility of ports will change for shippers. For example, in the new schedule rotations, Singapore gained 6 weekly calls on Asia-North European routes, whilst Antwerp in Belgium lost 4. The Gemini Cooperation also made the decision to abandon Felixstowe Port in the UK, in favour of London Gateway.
These schedule readjustments might require some supply chain altering from businesses, as it impacts the availability of capacity from certain regions.
To learn more about the Gemini Cooperation, and more generally how the shipping alliance changes will impact shippers, listen to our podcast with Alphaliner experts Jan Tiedemann and Stefan Verbeckmoes.
Alternatively, to keep across any developments in international shipping, so you can make the right decision for your supply chain subscribe to our weekly Market Update.
