How global policy shifts and trade risk will influence supply chains this year — and how shippers can prepare
Global trade in 2026 is being shaped not just by market demand, but by geopolitical policy decisions that affect tariffs, sourcing, routing and longer-term supply-chain strategy. As governments adjust trade policy to protect key industries, influence strategic partnerships, and respond to international tensions, shippers must adopt a forward-looking approach to risk management.
In this blog we look at the key geopolitical risks facing global freight this year — from tariff uncertainty to shifting routes and regulatory divergence — and provide practical recommendations for shippers navigating this environment.
1. Tariffs Remain a Strategic Business Cost
Tariffs continue to be deployed by governments as a policy lever rather than a short-term trade tool. Beyond headline duty rates, the perception of tariff risk can drive shifts in sourcing behaviour, cargo timing and market demand.
What we’re seeing
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Tariffs tied to trade and technology competition are shaping sourcing decisions, particularly for Asia–North America and Asia–Europe corridors.
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Even when rates don’t change, the risk of future increases can encourage companies to front-load shipments or diversify sourcing.
So what – Impact on shippers
Tariff risk should be integrated into:
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Total landed cost modelling
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Sourcing strategy
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Contract and capacity planning
Shippers that build tariff expectations into procurement and logistics strategies reduce last-minute cost volatility.
2. Timing and Seasonality Are Changing Under Policy Pressure
Traditional freight seasonality — where ocean demand peaks in late summer through autumn — is being reshaped by policy-driven behaviour among exporters.
What we’re seeing
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Exporters are moving volumes earlier when tariff risk rises, or delaying where uncertainty persists.
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This can soften traditional peaks and create atypical surges outside expected seasonal windows.
So what – Impact on shippers
Expect less predictable booking patterns. Instead of planning strictly by calendar season, adopt:
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Flexible space commitments
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Dynamic inventory buffers
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Lane-specific demand forecasting
3. Capacity and Fleet Dynamics Create Uneven Risk
Global fleet growth combined with trade policy uncertainty has created a paradox: overall capacity is plentiful in many markets, yet capacity doesn’t always match demand where it’s most needed.
What we’re seeing
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Large vessel capacity remains abundant on major tradelanes, but hasn’t eliminated volatility caused by policy shifts.
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Regional imbalances and demand spikes can still create pinch points.
So what – Impact on shippers
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Monitor lane-specific space trends
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Negotiate confirmed allocations early
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Factor in the possibility of temporary equipment shortages
4. Routing Risk and Geopolitical Flashpoints Matter More than Ever
Tariffs are only part of trade risk. Geopolitical tensions affect actual movement of goods — from sanctions to regional instability that can close or reroute key passages.
What we’re seeing
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Cargo routing decisions are influenced by naval security concerns, sanctions enforcement and trade policy risk.
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Even potential reopening of routes may initially create disruption before stability returns.
So what – Impact on shippers
Build flexibility into:
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Routing options
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Port and inland alternatives
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Transit time expectations
5. Air Freight as a Strategic Risk Tool
Air freight remains a resilience lever — but a targeted one.
What we’re seeing
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Strong demand for air freight on high-value, time-critical lanes.
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Significant pricing and capacity variation by region and season.
So what – Impact on shippers
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Use air freight selectively
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Plan with realistic capacity assumptions
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Avoid treating air as a universal fallback
6. Regulatory Divergence and Sustainability Expectations
Trade policy risk increasingly extends beyond tariffs into environmental regulation, industrial subsidies, and compliance regimes.
What we’re seeing
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Carbon border measures and sustainability reporting requirements influencing trade flows.
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Divergent regulatory regimes shaping carrier networks and investment.
So what – Impact on shippers
Integrate regulatory considerations into:
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Long-term partner and mode selection
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Compliance and sustainability reporting
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Cross-border documentation and duty strategy
Practical Actions for Shippers in 2026
To navigate geopolitical trade risk effectively:
✔ Build tariff expectations into landed cost models
✔ Diversify sourcing regions where feasible
✔ Secure space early on sensitive tradelanes
✔ Plan for irregular seasonality
✔ Align contracts, data quality, and compliance processes
Final Thoughts
2026 is not a year of predictable trade flows. Policy risk, tariff uncertainty, and regulatory complexity are now permanent features of global logistics.
Shippers that succeed will be those who integrate geopolitical awareness, contractual clarity, and operational flexibility into their supply-chain strategy.
At WTA Group, we’re focused on helping our customers stay ahead of these dynamics — with insight, structure, and logistics confidence that extends beyond the headlines.
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For more detailed information on how these dynamics may impact your energy supply chain, please get in touch with WTA Energy.
