If you haven’t downloaded your free copy of WTA’s election analysis, this looks at all the major elections taking place across the world in 2024 and the impact the results might have on international trade, I urge you to grab your copy now. It’s becoming something of a bible for anyone in charge of a supply chain.
Through my conversations both with customers and on various panels across the country, the conversation always comes back to the US elections. It’s a divisive election, and conversations usually revolve around the personalities involved. However, there are core policy issues the two administrations differ on, and this is what we will focus on today. These differences are crucial for businesses and their planning concerning international trade.
| Policy area | Expectation from a Biden administration | Expectation from a Trump administration |
| Ukraine war and NATO |
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| China |
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| Economic security and international trade |
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| Climate change |
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| Global South |
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Source: EPC Outlook Paper
How dependent is Europe on the US for trade?
Europe is dependent on the US for its military and energy needs. But it is also dependent on the country for trade. The US is the eurozone's biggest customer, with exports more than double those to China. In 2023, they reached €450 billion, compared with €200 billion to China, and they continue to grow.
Germany is the most exposed country, with a trade surplus with the US of €63.5 billion in 2023. Europeans buy software and microchips from the Americans. In return, they buy machinery, pharmaceuticals, and cheese.
Source: EPC Outlook Paper
If your international strategy is dependent on the US, reach out to the WTA Team to get advice on how the outcome of the election might affect your business. Looking at HS codes, tariff strategies, and country and port dependencies we’ll highlight key risk areas that need mitigating to ensure you minimize negative impacts.
