2024 elections: what are the core differences between a Biden administration and a Trump administration?

If you haven’t downloaded your free copy of WTA’s election analysis, this looks at all the major elections taking place across the world in 2024 and the impact the results might have on international trade, I urge you to grab your copy now. It’s becoming something of a bible for anyone in charge of a supply chain.

Through my conversations both with customers and on various panels across the country, the conversation always comes back to the US elections. It’s a divisive election, and conversations usually revolve around the personalities involved. However, there are core policy issues the two administrations differ on, and this is what we will focus on today. These differences are crucial for businesses and their planning concerning international trade.

Policy area Expectation from a Biden administration Expectation from a Trump administration
Ukraine war and NATO
  • Support for Ukraine but may be limited by the composition of Congress.
  • Commitment to European security provided the EU leads the way.
  • Strong support for NATO, but again with the EU stepping up both with action and an increase in spending on defence budget.
  • Potential to end support for Ukraine.
  • America-first priority deprioritises wider European security.
  • Trump may withdraw from NATO or ask Europe to pay what they ‘owe’ if they want US protection.
China
  • Recognition that China remains a security threat, but aim to stabilise the relationship.
  • A degree of decoupling for imports, especially regarding emerging technology.
  • Double down on anti-China rhetoric, and pushing for Europe to do the same.
  • Potentially more vocal support for Taiwan.
  • But equally, due to Trump’s unpredictability he may seek to make deals with Xi Jinping
Economic security and international trade
  • Policy continuity with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
  • Maintain the EU-US Trade and Tech Council.
  • No FTA with the UK in the foreseeable future.
  • America first.
  • Reverse the IRA.
  • Increased tariffs, potentially with Europe and China.
  • Potential for an FTA with the UK, depending on our stance on other issues.
Climate change
  • Commitment to a US green agenda and Paris Accords.
  • Likely to retract agreements made with Paris Accords.
  • Renewed push on fossil fuels.
Global South
  • Engage with the Global South and emerging Middle Powers.
  • Refocus on the Middle East and mitigate the fallout of war in Gaza.
  • No clear approach emerging.
  • Doubling down of support for Israel, and a more confrontational approach to Iran, risking escalation of conflict in the region, and negative consequences for Europe.

Source: EPC Outlook Paper

How dependent is Europe on the US for trade?

Europe is dependent on the US for its military and energy needs. But it is also dependent on the country for trade. The US is the eurozone's biggest customer, with exports more than double those to China. In 2023, they reached €450 billion, compared with €200 billion to China, and they continue to grow.

Germany is the most exposed country, with a trade surplus with the US of €63.5 billion in 2023. Europeans buy software and microchips from the Americans. In return, they buy machinery, pharmaceuticals, and cheese.

Source: EPC Outlook Paper

Justyna
If your international strategy is dependent on the US, reach out to the WTA Team to get advice on how the outcome of the election might affect your business. Looking at HS codes, tariff strategies, and country and port dependencies we’ll highlight key risk areas that need mitigating to ensure you minimize negative impacts.
Get in touch
Tags: , , , , ,
Back to Blog