Global supply chains face challenges in 2025, with risks like geopolitical tensions, tariff changes, and extreme weather disrupting trade. Shippers know all too well that staying ahead of these risks is essential for maintaining operational resilience, controlling costs, and meeting customer expectations.
By understanding these risks, businesses can implement strategies to minimise disruption. Read below our practical insights to protect your supply chain and navigate global trade uncertainties in 2025.
Risk 1: The continued Red Sea diversion
The Red Sea remains a critical route for global shipping, connecting Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. However, it’s expected to remain mostly out of action in 2025, with major container shipping lines diverting around the Cape of Good Hope due to missile attacks from Houthi rebels.
This massive 3000 nautical mile diversion means a continuation of increased transit times, disrupt schedules, and increase costs for international shippers.
In 2025, these diversions are expected to persist as political instability and military action in the surrounding areas show little sign of resolution. Leading industry analysts suggest the situation will not resolve until August at the absolute minimum. The unpredictability of this situation challenges supply chain planning and budgeting.
Mitigation strategies
- Work with logistics partners who provide real-time updates on the situation.
- Budget for higher carrier charges due to longer routes, particularly around May/June, when rates surged dramatically in 2024.
- Deploy a supply chain visibility tool to achieve total cost and timing transparency on your logistical supply chain.
Risk 2: Incoming US tariffs on imports
There has been a growing mood of protectionism across the US for many years, dating back to the first Donald Trump administration in 2016. Among the electorate and politicians, there is a huge appetite for more manufacturing in the USA. This was a cornerstone policy of the Republicans' landslide victory.
To me the most beautiful word in the dictionary is 'tariff.'"
In 2025, international shippers are likely to be forced to deal with new US tariffs. President-elect Donald Trump has proposed day 1 tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada, to force them into clamping down on illegal immigration and drug smuggling into the US. He’s also stated plans to implement further 10% tariffs on Chinese goods.
In addition, during the election campaign, the Republicans proposed a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports, with specific duties on Chinese goods reaching up to 60%.
These measures are aiming to strengthen domestic manufacturing. But it will almost certainly increase costs for the US consumer and pose significant challenges for international shippers, such as increased costs of trading with the US and, consequently, lower demand.
Mitigation strategies
- Reduce dependence on the US market by exploring opportunities in other regions to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
- Evaluate and adjust supply chains to minimise exposure to tariffed goods, possibly by sourcing from countries with more favourable US trade agreements.
- Look to cut waste elsewhere in the supply chain to compensate for increased tariff costs. Perhaps with the deployment of a logistical visibility tool.
Source: Safety4Sea
Risk 3: Wider geopolitical tensions
Geopolitical instability has posed significant challenges for global supply chains. Recent conflicts and trade disputes have impacted operations, increasing costs and delays for businesses trading internationally.
In 2025, this is expected only to continue, if not amplify, on top of the two previously mentioned geopolitical risks. War continues in Ukraine and Middle East, significant ideological differences remain between Western Allies and China over the status of Taiwan, governments in Germany and France are far from stable.
All these factors combine to create a highlighted volatile geopolitical situation.
Mitigation strategies
- Reduce reliance on single regions by sourcing materials and products from multiple countries.
- Follow industry and mainstream news to be across geopolitical developments.
- Write a risk management strategy and conduct scenario planning to ensure you are well-prepared in the wake of disruption.
Risk 4: Tightening environmental regulations
The global logistics sector is under pressure to meet new environmental regulations as governments ramp up efforts to combat climate change.
In 2025, the EU’s ETS surcharge for maritime transport emissions moves from applying to 40% of emissions, to 70%. With that comes increased costs for shippers.
Meanwhile, in April, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is expected to agree to a “goal-based marine fuel standard that will phase in the mandatory use of fuels with less GHG intensity”. The IMO has committed to reducing shipping emissions by 40% by 2030 (compared to 2008 levels), requiring carriers and shippers to adopt cleaner fuels, more efficient vessels, and greener logistical practices.
These changes will likely increase operational costs, which will be passed on to shippers in the form of higher rates.
Mitigation strategies
Building an sustainable supply chain in 2025.
Check out our recent PDF guide, where we explore the feasibility of a carbon neutral supply chain in 2025.
Risk 5: Cyber-attacks
As with any industry, logistics is increasingly reliant on digital systems. The industry's sheer size and potential disruptive consequences make it a prime target for hackers. In 2024, we saw several high-profile cyber-attacks, most notably a ransomware attack on supply chain software company Blue Yonder.
A report released by Howden at the end of 2024 estimated that cyber-attacks had cost UK businesses £44bn in lost revenue in the last five years.
Cyber threats are expected to escalate in 2025 as hackers find vulnerabilities in digitally reliant supply chains. A cyberattack has the potential to cost a company huge sums of money in recovery costs and lost revenue.
Over 560,000 attacks are detected every day in the UK, and whilst the overwhelming majority are unsuccessful, you can be sure if your company holds valuable data, there are those looking to access it.
Cyber security expert Deryck Mitchelson speaks to our Freight Club podcast
Check out the full episode here.
Mitigation strategies
- Invest in cybersecurity infrastructure. Implement robust firewalls, encryption, and intrusion detection systems to protect sensitive data.
- Conduct regular cybersecurity audits which identify and address vulnerabilities in your IT systems.
- Train employees on cybersecurity.
- Establish a clear plan of action in the wake of a cyber-attack to ensure operations resume quickly.
Risk 6: Shipping alliance changes
Shipping alliances play a crucial role in containerised trade. They enable carriers to pool resources, which means they can reliably offer weekly or bi-weekly services from all major ports. However, this requires hundreds of ships, which all shipping lines except one, MSC, are unable to do.
Shifts in these alliances can disrupt established routines, impacting capacity availability, transit times, and costs.
In 2025, the major shipping alliances are changing.
2M, which has combined the fleets of Maersk and MSC for the last five years, is disbanding. MSC will work alone, while Maersk joins forces with Hapag-Lloyd in the Gemini Cooperation.
THE Alliance, which previously contained Hapag-Lloyd, will continue with its 3 remaining partners ONE, HMM and Yang Ming as a renamed Premier Alliance. Meanwhile the Ocean Alliance remains unchanged, with CMA CGM, COSCO, OOCL, Evergreen working together.
The alliances have different priorities regarding their networks, which may impact which you prefer to engage with. For example, the Gemini Cooperation promises 90% service reliability but serves very few ports with direct calls from large vessels. Instead, it prefers to serve most with feeder ships. This is a different strategy from MSC, which calls directly at as many significant ports with ultra-large vessels as possible.
Mitigation strategies
- Use freight forwarders with relationships and the best rates across all the major carriers.
- Monitor industry news and stay informed about alliance changes by subscribing to the Market Update.
- Establish backup shipping plans to minimise disruptions in case of unexpected capacity constraints or delays.
Risk 7: Extreme weather events
Overwhelming scientific and statistical consensus is that climate change intensifies extreme weather events, posing significant challenges to global supply chains.
The frequency of these events has increased significantly in recent years. The United Nations reports a rise from 4,212 major natural disasters between 1980 and 1999 to 7,348 between 2000 and 2019.
As if to further highlight this volatility, by January 6th, the USA had already been the victim of snow storms in central and west coast areas, while Los Angeles battled with wildfires.
In 2025, these escalating weather events threaten to disrupt transportation, damage infrastructure, and lead to significant delays and financial losses for shippers. The monsoon season between April and September is increasingly delaying Asian ports, while strong winds in the winter months can often force European ports to cease operations.
By preparing for the disruption posed by extreme weather events, you can enhance the resilience of your supply chains and maintain operational efficiency.
Mitigation strategies
- Use advanced weather forecasting tools powered by AI to predict the likelihood of disruptive weather events or estimate the percentages of your goods that will be impacted throughout the year.
- Develop strategies to deal with disruptions caused by extreme weather, ensuring business processes continue.
- Source more materials and products from different regions to reduce dependency on a particular area.
Risk 8: Supply chain inefficiency
With growing competition and digitalisation, removing inefficiency from a supply chain has never been more important. Supply chains represent a considerable part of total product cost and is typically an area where huge savings can be found. Businesses that fall behind in their operations are at risk of bloated costs, hindering growth.
In 2025, the increasing adoption of digital tools and AI will allow supply chain managers to identify and eliminate inefficiencies. AI-supported supply chains are said to be 67% more efficient than their traditional counterparts.
“At WTA, we’re putting a real focus on developing the digital tools we have available to support customers with their supply chain. AI is uniquely positioned to perfectly support supply chains, owing to its ability to take a huge number of factors into its decision-making.”
Anthony Bour, IT Director, WTA
Mitigation strategies
- Greater adoption of digital tools powered by AI is needed to support decision-making across a supply chain impacted by an infinite number of variables.
- Improve collaboration with suppliers to boost the reliability and flexibility of the relationship.
Risk 9: Talent shortages in logistics
The logistics industry is struggling with a growing talent shortage. Key roles such as truck drivers, warehouse operators, and logistics planners are experiencing significant workforce deficits, with 76% of companies reporting challenges in filling positions. This leaves businesses with international logistical operations that are reliant on the sector vulnerable.
In 2025, logistics companies are expected to continue facing challenges in attracting the right staff. Technological advancements requiring specialised skills in AI and data analysis will exacerbate these shortages. Businesses that fail to attract and retain skilled talent risk inefficiency and rising labour costs.
Mitigation strategies
- Engage with a logistics service provider with an experienced talent base who possesses a deep understanding of technological developments, such as WTA.
- Invest in training programs on technology for internal supply chain and logistics staff.
Risk 10: Fuel costs subject to change
Fluctuating fuel costs significantly impact the logistics industry. Fuel expenses make up a substantial portion of transportation costs, particularly for the road freight sector. Logistics margins are very tight, so any added fuel costs will be immediately reflected in freight rates and surcharges.
Whilst the UK government committed to maintaining the freeze on fuel duty and the 5p rate cut in 2025, fuel prices are still vulnerable. Over the past five years, oil prices have been volatile, largely because of geopolitical events and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank
The threat of volatility in fuel costs remains in 2025 as war continues in Ukraine and the Middle East. Incoming environmental legislation will also force shipping lines to use more expensive, sustainable fuels this year and beyond.
Mitigation strategies
- Route optimisation with the assistance of a supply chain visibility tool.
- Sign longer-term contracts with logistics service providers to protect themselves from short-term rate increases or fuel costs. However, logistics providers sometimes argue that a fuel surcharge still applies.
In 2025, international shippers will face many risks. These include geopolitical tensions, tariffs, environmental regulations, and many other variables. Navigating these requires planning, strategy, and the right partnerships.
If you want to build a more resilient supply chain and reduce exposure to these risks, contact WTA Group today. Our experts provide custom solutions to help you adapt to changing market conditions, optimise your logistics, and protect against the risks outlined here.
