Overview
Status: Live Update – Week Commencing 13 July 2026
This week has seen a significant deterioration in the security situation across the Gulf, with the collapse of the recent ceasefire leading to renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran. The escalation has once again placed the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of global supply chain concerns, prompting shipping operators, energy markets and logistics providers to reassess operational risks.
While international trade continues to move, vessel traffic through the Strait has slowed considerably as carriers adopt more cautious operating procedures. The renewed uncertainty is beginning to affect freight planning, insurance costs and routing decisions, particularly for shipments moving between Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
As a business operating across international logistics networks, maintaining supply chain visibility and contingency planning remains essential.
Ceasefire Breakdown Increases Operational Risk
The most significant development this week has been the effective breakdown of the June ceasefire agreement, resulting in renewed military activity across the Gulf region.
Current developments include:
- Increased military exchanges between the United States and Iran
- Renewed security concerns around commercial shipping
- Heightened naval operations across the Gulf
- Greater uncertainty surrounding freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz
The renewed escalation has increased the operational risk profile for carriers transiting the region.
Shipping Activity Slows Through the Strait of Hormuz
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed noticeably this week as shipping companies review safety procedures.
Current conditions include:
- Reduced tanker movements compared with previous weeks
- Enhanced security measures for commercial vessels
- Longer voyage planning and approval processes
- Increased monitoring by naval authorities and shipping operators
Although the Strait remains accessible to some commercial traffic, shipping activity is operating well below normal levels.
Ocean Carriers Activate Contingency Measures
Rather than suspending services entirely, many carriers are strengthening operational contingency plans.
This week has seen:
- More detailed voyage risk assessments
- Greater communication with customers regarding shipment status
- Ongoing review of alternative routing where commercially viable
- Closer monitoring of regional port and terminal operations
Carriers continue to balance service continuity with the need to protect crews, vessels and cargo.
Energy Market Volatility Returns
Renewed concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have also affected global energy markets.
Logistics providers are monitoring:
- Increased volatility in crude oil prices
- Potential upward pressure on bunker fuel costs
- Fuel surcharge implications across ocean and air freight
- Broader transport operating costs if instability continues
As approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally transits the Strait, any prolonged disruption would have significant implications for global logistics costs.
Businesses Strengthen Supply Chain Resilience
The latest escalation is encouraging businesses to reinforce resilience measures introduced earlier this year.
Many organisations are continuing to:
- Diversify supplier networks
- Increase visibility across international shipments
- Review contingency routing options
- Build greater flexibility into inventory planning
These actions are helping businesses reduce exposure to rapidly changing geopolitical conditions.
Insurance & Compliance Remain Key Priorities
Marine insurers continue to monitor developments closely as the security environment evolves.
Current focus areas include:
- War-risk insurance assessments
- Vessel routing guidance
- Compliance with updated maritime security advisories
- Ongoing sanctions monitoring
Businesses moving cargo through the region should continue reviewing insurance cover and maintaining close communication with logistics providers.
Broader Global Supply Chain Impact
While widespread disruption to international trade has not yet occurred, the latest developments demonstrate how quickly geopolitical events can influence global logistics.
Potential impacts include:
- Slower transit times through affected regions
- Increased operational costs for carriers
- Continued pressure on freight planning and scheduling
- Greater emphasis on supply chain resilience and business continuity
The current environment reinforces the need for agile logistics strategies capable of responding to rapidly changing market conditions.
Our Position & Ongoing Monitoring
We are actively monitoring:
- Maritime security developments across the Strait of Hormuz
- Ocean and air freight market conditions
- Carrier service updates and operational advisories
- Fuel price movements and freight cost trends
- Insurance, sanctions and regulatory developments
We will continue to update this blog as the situation evolves.
If your organisation has shipments moving through the Middle East or relies on Asia–Europe trade routes, we recommend maintaining regular communication with your logistics provider and reviewing contingency plans to minimise potential disruption.
If you have any questions relating to your supply chain being impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, reach out by clicking the 'Get in touch' button.
