Overview
Status: Live Update – 1 October 2026
The logistics picture surrounding the Iran conflict remains highly complex as we enter October.
Commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to operate at a fraction of normal levels, with shipowners facing substantial security and insurance barriers. However, energy flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered significantly, demonstrating that oil exporters and tanker operators are finding ways to maintain supply despite the continuing disruption.
For wider global supply chains, this does not represent a return to normal. Container shipping, conventional commercial traffic and insurance conditions remain severely affected, while continuing instability around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb adds another layer of uncertainty.
Hormuz Commercial Traffic Remains Severely Restricted
Visible commercial shipping through the Strait remains exceptionally low.
AIS tracking for the seven days leading into 1 October showed an average of approximately five commercial crossings per day, compared with around 85 before the crisis.
Nine AIS-visible commercial vessels crossed during 30 September, but traffic remains volatile from one day to the next.
Importantly, these figures do not capture vessels operating without AIS transmissions, meaning actual cargo movements may be higher.
For businesses, the distinction remains important: the Strait is not completely impassable, but normal, predictable commercial navigation has not returned.
Gulf Oil Exports Recover Despite Shipping Disruption
One of the most significant developments entering October is the recovery in Persian Gulf crude exports.
September exports reportedly returned towards 2025 levels, despite the continuing restrictions affecting the Strait.
Energy producers have achieved this through a combination of increased tanker movements, alternative infrastructure, coordinated passages and vessels operating without standard tracking.
This creates an increasingly divided logistics environment.
Energy cargoes are moving more effectively, while conventional commercial shipping continues to face much greater constraints.
For businesses, improving oil-export figures should therefore not be interpreted as evidence that wider Gulf logistics have normalised.
Insurance Remains a Barrier to Normal Shipping
Marine insurance continues to be one of the most significant obstacles to restoring conventional commercial operations.
The continued possibility of vessel attacks means war-risk cover remains substantially more expensive than before the conflict.
This affects:
- Carrier willingness to accept Gulf cargo
- Vessel and tanker availability
- Chartering costs
- Freight surcharges
- Cargo insurance requirements
- Overall landed costs
Until the security environment improves consistently, insurance conditions are likely to continue slowing the recovery of commercial shipping.
Container & General Cargo Networks Remain Under Pressure
While crude exports are recovering, containerised and general cargo supply chains continue to face a more difficult operating environment.
Businesses trading with Gulf markets must continue to plan around reduced direct connectivity and changing carrier networks.
Alternative gateways outside the Strait remain strategically important, particularly for businesses requiring more predictable cargo movements.
This can involve combining:
- Ocean freight through alternative ports
- Regional road transport
- Feeder services
- Air freight for urgent cargo
- Revised inventory positioning
These solutions provide flexibility but can increase cost, handling requirements and lead times.
Red Sea & Bab el-Mandeb Remain a Second Major Concern
Conditions around Bab el-Mandeb remain another significant risk for international shipping.
The expansion of Houthi control around strategically important areas close to the Strait has increased uncertainty for vessels travelling between the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.
This is particularly significant for Asia–Europe supply chains.
If operators face heightened risk around both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the number of commercially attractive routing options becomes increasingly limited.
Businesses should therefore continue monitoring the wider regional picture rather than viewing Hormuz disruption in isolation.
Oil Prices Remain Elevated Despite Export Recovery
The recovery in Gulf crude exports has helped ease immediate concerns over physical oil shortages, but energy prices remain elevated.
Brent crude remained around the high-$90s per barrel entering October, significantly above levels seen before the conflict.
The reason is increasingly about future risk rather than simply today's physical supply.
Markets remain concerned about:
- Further attacks on vessels
- Damage to energy infrastructure
- Future export reliability
- Red Sea disruption
- Limited global supply buffers
For logistics providers and shippers, this means fuel-related transport costs could remain elevated even if physical oil exports continue improving.
Sanctions Increase Pressure on Iranian Shipping
Sanctions are also having a growing impact on Iran-linked tanker operations.
Renewed U.S. pressure on companies supporting Iranian oil movements has reportedly left a number of Iran-linked tankers stranded in Asian waters and disrupted ship-to-ship transfer networks used to facilitate Iranian exports.
This adds another layer of complexity to vessel compliance and counterparty screening.
Businesses operating across affected trade lanes should continue reviewing:
- Vessel ownership
- Sanctions exposure
- Counterparty relationships
- Cargo documentation
- Banking and payment arrangements
Compliance remains as important as physical transport availability when planning movements connected to the region.
What This Means for Supply Chains
The position entering October is increasingly one of uneven recovery.
Energy exporters have demonstrated that significant volumes can move despite the disruption, but this has not yet translated into normal conditions for wider commercial shipping.
Businesses should therefore continue to:
- Maintain alternative Gulf routing options
- Build additional lead time into affected shipments
- Review insurance requirements before booking
- Monitor carrier schedules and surcharges
- Consider air freight for critical cargo
- Maintain visibility over inventory and shipments
- Monitor fuel and energy costs
- Review sanctions exposure across vessels and counterparties
The priority remains flexibility rather than assuming that improving energy flows signal a wider return to normal.
Our Position & Ongoing Monitoring
We are actively monitoring:
- Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
- Gulf oil and energy flows
- Container services and regional port accessibility
- Developments around Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea
- Carrier routing and service changes
- Ocean and air freight capacity
- Oil and bunker fuel prices
- War-risk and marine insurance
- Sanctions and regulatory developments
We will continue to update this blog as conditions develop.
If your organisation has shipments moving through the Gulf, Middle East, Red Sea or key Asia–Europe trade corridors, we recommend maintaining close communication with your logistics provider and reviewing upcoming cargo movements and contingency arrangements carefully.
While energy flows are showing signs of recovery, wider commercial shipping remains severely disrupted. Flexibility, visibility and proactive planning remain essential while the security environment remains uncertain.
