Overview
Status: Live Update – Week Commencing 12 October 2026
The Iran conflict continues to create significant uncertainty for global transport and supply chains as the second week of October progresses.
Following heightened maritime security concerns in recent weeks, shipping operators remain focused on managing risk across the Strait of Hormuz and wider Gulf region. Although some cargo movements continue, the operating environment remains challenging, with security considerations, insurance costs and changing transport arrangements influencing commercial decisions.
For global supply chains, the effects of prolonged disruption are becoming increasingly apparent. Businesses are now balancing immediate shipment requirements with longer-term concerns around transport reliability, inventory availability and freight expenditure.
As the final quarter of 2026 progresses, maintaining visibility and flexibility across international logistics networks remains essential.
Maritime Security Remains a Primary Concern
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be one of the most closely monitored maritime corridors.
Following reports of further security incidents involving commercial vessels in recent weeks, shipping operators must continue to assess the risks associated with entering and leaving the Gulf.
Key considerations include:
- Enhanced vessel and voyage security assessments
- Continued monitoring of maritime security advisories
- Potential changes to vessel routing and transit arrangements
- Greater scrutiny of crew safety and cargo exposure
- Continued uncertainty surrounding unrestricted commercial navigation
For carriers, decisions regarding Gulf voyages remain closely linked to the wider security environment.
Commercial Shipping Continues to Face Operational Constraints
Although energy shipments and other commercial cargo movements continue through the region, the operating environment remains far from straightforward.
Different cargo sectors face varying levels of disruption, with tanker movements, container services and general cargo operations subject to different commercial and security requirements.
For businesses, this creates additional complexity when planning international shipments.
Potential implications include:
- Reduced flexibility in vessel selection
- Changes to sailing schedules
- Additional cargo handling requirements
- Longer and less predictable lead times
- Greater reliance on alternative gateways
Businesses should continue reviewing individual shipment arrangements rather than assuming that improvements in one area of the market indicate a broader recovery.
Carrier Networks Adapt to Prolonged Disruption
As regional uncertainty continues, shipping lines are increasingly having to balance service continuity with operational risk.
Alternative port arrangements, feeder connections and inland transport options remain important considerations for cargo moving into and out of Gulf markets.
However, these solutions can introduce additional complexity and cost.
This week, businesses should continue monitoring:
- Carrier service announcements
- Changes to port calls and vessel rotations
- Availability of feeder connections
- Inland transport capacity
- Potential congestion at alternative gateways
Early communication with logistics providers can help identify potential challenges before shipments are committed.
Freight Costs Remain Sensitive to Regional Developments
Freight pricing continues to be influenced by the wider geopolitical situation.
Even where underlying ocean freight rates show signs of stability, businesses may still face additional costs associated with security, insurance, fuel and alternative transport arrangements.
Areas of concern include:
- War-risk insurance premiums
- Fuel-related surcharges
- Additional road and feeder transport costs
- Port handling charges
- Storage and detention exposure
- Longer inventory holding periods
For importers and exporters, understanding the complete landed cost of shipments remains particularly important.
Air Freight Provides Flexibility for Critical Cargo
Air freight continues to offer an alternative for businesses seeking greater flexibility around urgent shipments.
However, air cargo networks are also sensitive to regional security developments, including changes to airspace availability and fuel costs.
Businesses considering air freight should assess:
- Capacity availability
- Routing and transit time reliability
- Potential fuel surcharges
- Customs requirements
- The commercial value of faster delivery
A targeted approach, using air freight for critical shipments while maintaining ocean or multimodal options for other cargo, can help balance cost and service requirements.
Insurance & Compliance Requirements Remain Important
The continued security situation reinforces the importance of reviewing insurance and regulatory requirements before cargo moves through affected regions.
Marine insurers may apply additional conditions to higher-risk voyages, while businesses must also remain aware of sanctions and trade restrictions.
Priority considerations include:
- Confirming cargo and war-risk insurance coverage
- Reviewing vessel ownership and operating arrangements
- Screening relevant counterparties
- Monitoring sanctions and regulatory developments
- Maintaining accurate shipping documentation
Compliance and insurance checks should remain part of routine shipment planning rather than being addressed only after a disruption occurs.
Businesses Review Year-End Supply Chain Exposure
With the final quarter underway, businesses are increasingly focused on protecting delivery schedules and maintaining stock availability.
The prolonged uncertainty surrounding Middle East shipping routes makes early planning particularly important for organisations with seasonal demand or time-sensitive supply requirements.
Key actions include:
- Reviewing critical inventory requirements
- Confirming upcoming shipment schedules
- Identifying products with limited stock cover
- Maintaining alternative transport options
- Reviewing supplier and distribution arrangements
- Allowing additional lead time where necessary
These measures can help reduce the commercial impact of unexpected delays during the final months of the year.
Broader Global Supply Chain Impact
The continued disruption highlights the importance of building resilience into international logistics networks.
Businesses are increasingly recognising that geopolitical uncertainty can affect supply chains through multiple channels, including transport capacity, energy costs, insurance, regulatory requirements and inventory planning.
Rather than focusing solely on individual shipping delays, organisations are placing greater emphasis on end-to-end supply chain visibility and contingency planning.
The ability to respond quickly to changing conditions remains a key advantage in the current environment.
Our Position & Ongoing Monitoring
We are actively monitoring:
- Maritime security developments across the Strait of Hormuz
- Commercial shipping activity and carrier advisories
- Gulf port accessibility and alternative routing arrangements
- Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb developments
- Ocean and air freight capacity
- Fuel prices and transport surcharges
- War-risk insurance conditions
- Sanctions and regulatory changes
We will continue to update this blog as the situation evolves.
If your organisation has shipments moving through the Middle East, Gulf region, Red Sea or key Asia–Europe trade corridors, we recommend maintaining close communication with your logistics provider and reviewing contingency arrangements to minimise potential disruption.
The prolonged uncertainty across the region continues to reinforce the importance of flexible, resilient supply chains. Further updates will be published as new information becomes available.
